SENTINEL

Cyber Threat Intelligence

The war isn't just missiles and tankers. It's happening in your network right now. State-sponsored cyber groups from Iran, Russia, and their proxies are actively targeting energy infrastructure, banking systems, government networks, and the digital backbone of the global economy. This is the invisible front of the cascade.

Low
Normal activity
Elevated
Increased scanning
High
Active campaigns
Severe
Ongoing attacks
Critical
Infrastructure down

The Cyber-Physical Cascade

Every physical attack has a cyber dimension. Every cyber attack has physical consequences. Here's how they chain together in the 2026 crisis:

Kinetic strikes on 3 AWS data centers
Cloud services disrupted (banking, payments)
Companies scramble to migrate
Iranian APTs target backup systems
92M Iranians cut from internet
IRGC controls remaining access
State-directed cyber ops from controlled infra
No civilian oversight possible
17 undersea cables threatened
95% EU-Asia-Africa data at risk
Backup satellite links saturated
Global internet fragmentation
Russia oil infrastructure destroyed
Russian cyber retaliation on Ukraine & allies
Energy grid attacks (Sandworm playbook)
Power outages in winter

SENTINEL Cyber Assessment

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Active Threat Actors — March 2026

Iran

APT33 / Elfin

Also: Refined Kitten, Magnallium, Holmium

Iran's primary cyber espionage group targeting aviation and energy. Since the war, shifted to destructive attacks on Gulf state oil & gas SCADA systems. Known for Shamoon-style wiper malware.

ACTIVE NOWEnergyAviationGulf States
Iran

APT34 / OilRig

Also: Helix Kitten, Crambus, Cobalt Gypsy

Financial sector and government targeting. Since Feb 28, massively ramped operations against US and allied banking infrastructure. Spear-phishing campaigns against defense contractors surged 400%.

ACTIVE NOWBankingGovernmentDefense
Iran

MuddyWater

Also: Mercury, Mango Sandstorm, Static Kitten

Targets telecoms and government. Currently focused on disrupting communications infrastructure in Iraq, Bahrain, and UAE to blind US military coordination. Connected to Iran's MOIS.

ACTIVE NOWTelecomsMilitaryIraq/Gulf
Iran

CyberAv3ngers (IRGC-CEC)

IRGC Cyber-Electronic Command

The group that hit Unitronics PLCs in US water systems in 2023. Now targeting industrial control systems across allied nations. Water treatment, power distribution, port operations. Direct IRGC command.

CRITICALWater SystemsPower GridPorts
Russia

Sandworm / Voodoo Bear

Also: Iridium, Seashell Blizzard, GRU Unit 74455

The most destructive cyber group on Earth. Responsible for Ukraine power grid attacks (2015, 2016, 2022), NotPetya ($10B damage). After Ukraine's oil strikes, Sandworm is retaliating against Ukrainian and European energy infrastructure.

ACTIVE NOWPower GridsEnergyEurope
Russia

APT28 / Fancy Bear

Also: Sofacy, Forest Blizzard, GRU Unit 26165

Russia's premier cyber espionage unit. Currently conducting influence operations and intelligence gathering against NATO decision-making. Targeting defense ministries across Europe.

ACTIVE NOWNATOGovernmentDefense
Russia

Turla / Venomous Bear

Also: Snake, Krypton, Secret Blizzard, FSB

FSB-linked espionage group. Among the most sophisticated. Currently hijacking Iranian APT infrastructure (documented by NSA/NCSC) to conduct false-flag operations, complicating attribution.

COVERTEspionageFalse FlagAllied Nations
China

Volt Typhoon

Also: Bronze Silhouette, Vanguard Panda

Pre-positioned in US critical infrastructure since 2021. Targets water, power, telecoms, ports. Not attacking yet — but if the Iran war draws in China or threatens Taiwan trade routes, these implants activate.

PRE-POSITIONEDUS InfrastructureWaterPower
China

Salt Typhoon

Also: GhostEmperor, FamousSparrow

Compromised major US telecoms (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) in 2024. Access to wiretap systems and call metadata. During the crisis, this intelligence gives China real-time visibility into US military communications.

EMBEDDEDTelecomsWiretapsUS ISPs

Cyber Incident Timeline — 2026 Crisis

CRITICALMar 22-23

Kinetic strikes on 3 AWS data centers (UAE/Bahrain)

First-ever military attack on cloud infrastructure. Banking, payments, enterprise services disrupted. Iran claimed Bahrain facility supported military AI. Sets precedent: data centers are now legitimate military targets.

Banking disruptions across Gulf states. Enterprise cloud services degraded for 12+ hours.
CRITICALMar 14 - ongoing

Iran internet blackout — 92M offline

IRGC shut down 98% of internet traffic. Cloudflare Radar confirmed. Starlink signals jammed. Longest blackout in Iranian history. State controls all remaining connectivity.

92 million people cut from global information. IRGC using controlled infra for offensive cyber operations.
CRITICALMar 15 - ongoing

IRGC threats to 17 undersea cables

FALCON, AAE-1, 2Africa Pearls, EIG, SEA-ME-WE 6 all in conflict zone. 95% of EU-Asia-Africa internet traffic. Meta's 2Africa cable delayed indefinitely. Repair ships cannot access.

If cables severed: Europe-Asia latency goes from 100ms to 400ms+. Financial trading disrupted. AI training/inference affected.
HIGHMar 1 - ongoing

Iranian APT surge — 400% increase in operations

APT33, APT34, MuddyWater, CyberAv3ngers all activated to wartime tempo. Targeting US/allied banking, energy, telecoms, and defense. Spear-phishing, supply chain compromises, wiper malware deployments.

Multiple financial institutions reporting increased attack volume. CISA issued emergency directive.
HIGHMar 25 - ongoing

Sandworm retaliation after Ukraine oil strikes

After Ukraine destroyed 40% of Russian oil export capacity, Sandworm escalated attacks on Ukrainian and European energy infrastructure. Industrial control system targeting confirmed by CERT-UA.

European energy operators on highest alert. Emergency patching of SCADA systems underway.
HIGHFeb 28 - ongoing

DDoS campaign against US government sites

Hacktivist groups aligned with Iran launching sustained DDoS attacks against .gov and .mil domains. Primarily disruptive, not destructive, but consuming defensive resources.

Government sites intermittently slow. Resources diverted from offensive operations to defense.
MEDIUMOngoing

Volt Typhoon implants in US infrastructure remain active

FBI/NSA confirmed Chinese pre-positioning in US water, power, and telecoms persists. Not activated during Iran conflict — yet. These are strategic reserves for a potential Taiwan scenario, but their existence means US critical infrastructure has a dormant kill switch.

US critical infrastructure compromised. Remediation ongoing but incomplete.

What This Means For You

Banking

If your bank uses AWS Middle East, you already felt disruptions on March 22. If cables are cut, international transfers slow or stop. Have cash reserves and access to multiple banking providers.

Power & Water

State-sponsored groups are actively targeting power grids and water treatment systems. Sandworm has done this before (Ukraine 2015, 2016). CyberAv3ngers hit US water systems in 2023. Emergency supplies matter.

Internet

Cable sabotage = slower internet, broken services, isolated regions. Download important documents offline. Know alternative communication methods (radio, mesh networks, local storage).

Personal Security

Phishing surges during conflicts. Don't click unknown links. Enable 2FA on everything. Update your devices. Use a password manager. Your digital security is part of the national defense.

Data synthesized from CISA advisories, Mandiant/Google TAG, Microsoft MSTIC, CrowdStrike, CERT-UA, Cloudflare Radar, and open-source intelligence. AI analysis regenerates every 12 hours.

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