SENTINEL

Economic Cascade Simulator

Drag the slider. Watch the world economy react. This isn't a game — it's the IEA/IMF economic model applied to the 2026 crisis in real time. See what happens if oil hits $140, if both straits close, or if cables are cut.

Choose a Scenario

Current State
What's happening right now
April 6 Escalation
US strikes Iran energy
Dual Strait Closure
Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb
Cables Cut
17 Red Sea cables severed
Full Cascade
Everything at once

Adjust Oil Price

Brent Crude Oil ($/barrel)$108
$70 (pre-war)$108 (now)$140 (Apr 6)$200 (worst)

Cascading Impacts

+0%
Fuel Price Increase
vs pre-war baseline
+0%
Food Price Increase
within 6 weeks
+0%
Shipping Cost
container rates
+0%
Inflation Impact
added to CPI
-0%
Global GDP Impact
annual reduction
-0%
Gulf GDP Impact
UAE/Bahrain/Qatar
$0
Household Cost (AU)
extra per month
0M
Jobs at Risk
global estimate

What This Means

Move the slider to see the cascade effect.

Model based on IEA World Energy Outlook, IMF fiscal multipliers, WTO trade elasticities. Household costs use Australian baseline (adjustable on /prepare).

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